Securing an extension to the Cambo licenses affords Siccar Level Vitality time to seek out the precise associate to progress the challenge.

And with oil at the moment buying and selling at nicely over $100 a barrel, there might be a “excessive degree of curiosity” within the scheme, Alyson Harding, technical supervisor at Westwood International Vitality Group, has predicted.

It was confirmed on Wednesday that trade regulator the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) had awarded an extension to the licences for Siccar Level challenge, forward of them expiring in the present day.

Rising from the ashes

Having regarded all however useless after Shell (LON: SHEL) opted to drag out of the scheme in December, a resurgence within the oil value and a drive for vitality safety has given Cambo a brand new lease of life.

The supermajor just lately revealed it was “mapping out subsequent steps” on the sphere, and that the extension would give it extra time to determine what to do.

Shell holds a 30% stake in Cambo, which has been on the centre of a debate between trade and local weather campaigners for a lot of the final yr.

Consistent with forecasts

Analysts beforehand predicted that an extension to the licenses was the most certainly occasion, and Ms Harding says yesterday’s information wasn’t a shock.

She mentioned: “The NSTA will know that this challenge has been progressed to the ultimate funding determination stage. If it had not been given an extension, it might be years earlier than one other firm may decide up the challenge and take it ahead.

“Even when a licencing spherical is introduced this yr, as has been steered by the federal government, awards wouldn’t be till late within the yr or early 2023, and any firm that picks up the acreage could should ‘begin once more’ with the event challenge. Westminster can be aware of the safety of provide difficulty that has come to a head because the Ukraine conflict began and the necessity for indigenous hydrocarbons.

“This will likely be excellent news for Siccar Level. It would give them the time wanted to both progress the event with Shell, if Shell is prepared to do that, or to farm out the asset to a different firm prepared to spend money on the event. With the present excessive oil costs, there could also be a excessive degree of curiosity from oil and fuel firms or non-public fairness traders.”

A change of sentiment

Whereas the UK’s internet hosting of the COP26 local weather convention final yr undoubtedly amplified adverse sentiment in direction of the North Sea, latest occasions have, to some extent, reversed that.

Efforts to scale back imports of Russian fuel and oil following the nation’s invasion of Ukraine has shone a lightweight on home provide.

Furthermore sharp commodity value will increase have contributed considerably to inflation and better vitality payments.

Ashley Kelty, an oil and fuel analyst at funding financial institution Panmure Gordon, believes that “given the seismic change within the vitality panorama since COP26”, Shell may nicely revaluate its determination to exit Cambo.

He mentioned: “It does make sense that the UK Authorities would need this to be developed as we search to scale back reliance on Russian crude. As an apart, it’s value noting that the gradual phasing out of that over the course of 2022 is designed to keep away from diesel shortages – 30% of UK diesel provide comes from Russia – and the gradual timing permits for various provides to be discovered and keep away from forecourt shortages and public panic.”

Director at Gneiss Vitality, Craig Stevens agrees that the present “geopolitical tensions” has propelled vitality safety issues to the “forefront”.

As such it’s “not shocking” that Siccar Level has been given extra time to determine the way it needs to progress with Cambo.

He mentioned: “Even essentially the most formidable forecasts for vitality transition foresee a necessity for hydrocarbons into the 2030s and past – it’s clear that Cambo may present a big factor of this but it surely must be carried out sustainably and with a transparent transition plan in thoughts, not only for Cambo however for the basin as an entire.”