The definitions of Environmental, social and company governance (ESG) have been challenged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nowhere extra so than within the vitality sector, the place firms have been compelled by occasions to exit Russia abruptly and vitality costs have soared to file ranges.

The Ukraine conflict Forces New Vitality Actuality for Europe

The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels and the hazards of that reliance in addition to the Russian economic system’s reliance on promoting these fuels to Europe – round 40% of Europe’s fuel provides and greater than half of the coal it makes use of comes from Russia.

It has additionally shifted sentiment considerably on Russian vitality sources, in Germany notably. The suspension, which might be everlasting, of the Nordstream 2 pipeline heralds a shift away from Russian fossil gasoline provides in direction of extra renewables, extra vitality effectivity, extra vitality storage.

Nuclear vitality future

There was even discuss of a keep of execution for the nation’s three remaining nuclear energy stations, that are resulting from shut by the tip of the yr, though that chance appears to have receded.

As funding financial institution Jefferies says: “Nuclear presents an answer to lots of Europe’s vitality priorities: (1) decarbonisation, (2) coal phaseout, (3) independence from international fuel, (4) vitality safety.”

Nevertheless, it does none of this stuff any time quickly, and as Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian nuclear energy stations starkly illustrates, not one of the security issues have gone away, and traders are prone to differentiate between conserving current reactors open and plans to construct new services.

Rolls Royce SMR Mini Nuclear reactors

However whereas traders stay cautious of latest, full-sized nuclear energy vegetation, the disaster could kickstart the marketplace for small modular reactors, the sub-300MW capability nuclear know-how being developed by Rolls Royce and others.

The UK has just lately began the approval course of for the corporate’s SMR design, which is on the coronary heart of Britain’s technique to achieve internet zero carbon emissions by 2050, whereas nations from Canada to China are engaged on their very own initiatives. Satirically, Russia is among the many leaders within the know-how.

Regardless of the end result of the conflict, Europe’s vitality panorama shall be modified endlessly – but in addition sooner than most individuals think about. Simply witness the velocity with which Ukraine and Moldova have been synchronised to the Continental European Grid – the European Fee mentioned that the European Community of Transmission System Operators for Electrical energy (ENTSO E) made it occur by “doing a yr’s work in two weeks”. It’s a transfer not simply fraught with political symbolism however that may assist the 2 nations to combine extra renewable vitality into their grids in future.

Elevated push for Renewable vitality options

The surge in oil and fuel costs has inspired some observers to see the conflict as the beginning of a renaissance for oil and fuel, as fears over vitality safety within the brief time period trump local weather fears that play out over an extended timeframe.

But the reality is that the environmental, financial and political circumstances for phasing out fossil gasoline manufacturing should not solely aligned as by no means earlier than, however stronger than they ever have been, with vitality safety and affordability added to the environmental imperatives that demand an vitality transition – and that’s unlikely to alter.

The selections by the US, UK and EU to chop their reliance on Russian manufacturing – and notably the EU’s emphasis on renewables, hydrogen and effectivity, herald fossil gasoline demand destruction on an enormous scale – demand that may by no means come again.

Investing in clear vitality

And the surge in oil and fuel costs makes it much more economical to spend money on clear vitality, warmth pumps and electrical autos. It has even made inexperienced hydrogen value aggressive with gray hydrogen for now, which may solely speed up the roll-out of that know-how. It additionally highlights one of many key dangers for blue hydrogen (which captures the emissions from producing hydrogen from fuel), specifically the value volatility of the feedstock.

Vitality effectivity investments

However the largest – and quickest – bang on your buck on the subject of weaning shoppers off fossil fuels is from vitality effectivity investments, which ship vitality financial savings and decrease payments over the long run to shoppers (who’re additionally voters), in addition to delivering the strategic blow to Russia of completely decreasing vitality demand in its largest buyer.

But to this point, governments have persistently ignored or failed to know the advantage of effectivity measures, maybe as a result of they’re much less seen than a wind turbine or photo voltaic farm, and the advantages when it comes to jobs, manufacturing services and a extra dispersed jobs profit.

This has to alter – vitality effectivity presents all the advantages of nuclear energy, however in six months not six years or extra and with out the poisonous waste. Traders ought to be lobbying governments to facilitate extra investments on this space by insurance policies similar to constructing rules, taxation modifications and subsidies, so as to add to the impetus already given by hovering vitality costs.

Russian fuel provide to Europe

There are indicators that the tide is beginning to flip – a 10-point plan to wean Europe off Russian fuel from the Worldwide Vitality Company consists of measures to interchange fuel boilers with warmth pumps and to speed up vitality effectivity enhancements in buildings and business. At current, solely about 1% of the EU’s constructing inventory is renovated every year, the company says. Accelerating this by focusing on the least environment friendly buildings “would save greater than 1 bcm of fuel use within the area of a yr”.

Analysts E3G agree with the IEA in a brand new report that claims the UK may lower its Russian fuel exports by 15% this yr. “As essential as provide is, the quickest strategy to cut back our publicity to hovering costs is to make use of much less fuel, by lowering demand in properties and business,” it factors out.

Even earlier than the battle started, the Carbon Tracker Initiative was warning that top vitality costs right this moment have been making a danger of vitality firms investing closely in new belongings that might turn into stranded inside just a few years. “Firms basing sanctioning selections on bullish short-term alerts danger vital over-investment, severely impacting shareholder worth. It wouldn’t be the primary time that the business has fallen into this entice,” Carbon Tracker says, including that beneath a ‘high-investment case’, “firms may waste some $530bn of capex this decade as demand begins to say no and the oil worth falls again to c.$40.” At £30/bbl, greater than $1,000bn of capex could be wasted.

The conflict in Ukraine and the next response highlights how that speculation may turn into actuality extra quickly than the business imagines.